Nigel Farage and the Newark By-Election-The Truth

I heard Nigel Farage on the radio last night announcing that he would announce his decision about standing or not in the Newark by-election this morning. I knew he would bottle it, I could tell.

This morning there he was on the TV news pontificating about how he wasn't going to stand because it would be a distraction from the Euro elections and he had no links to Newark and would look like an opportunist. Well I can verify that he's an opportunist but no links? Come on, he had no links to Eastleigh or Buckingham when he stood in both those constituencies in parliamentary elections.

He claimed it would be a distraction from the EU elections. A distraction from the EU elections? I don't see garnering masses of extra publicity in a by-election, and the writ has not even been moved yet, as a distraction. He also claimed that he had only had twelve hours to make his decision. Bullshit! Patrick Mercer has made it clear that if found guilty and suspended for any reasonable length of time from the House of Commons that he would resign, causing a by-election. it has been pretty clear for months that there would be a by-election in Newark and that it would likely be this spring or summer.

Farage is a hypocrite and a con man. He was instrumental in changing UKIP's policy of not taking seats in the EU parliament if elected, and was promptly elected to the gravy train in 1999. It is obvious to even the biggest political buffoon that even if all UK MEPs elected next month were UKIP it would have no impact on our membership. Only our Westminster Parliament can do that. But UKIP doesn't take its policies, other than on the EU and immigration seriously, therefore we can only conclude that they don't take our parliamentary elections seriously.

No, I knew he wouldn't stand in Newark because he would be in danger of actually winning the seat and he can't afford that to happen. You see you can't be an MEP and an MP at the same time anymore. He would have to resign his seat on the EU gravy train, which is worth far more financially to gravy train passengers than Westminster is.

 Maybe Farage could have won the by-election, UKIP still might win without Farage as the candidate. But winning with a massive protest vote, on the back of a so-called 'victory' in a meaningless EU election on a tiny turnout is one thing, defending the seat less than a year later in a general election is another. If UKIP did manage to win, and it's not a foregone conclusion, they would almost certainly lose it next year.

Farage enjoys a lavish lifestyle on his massive salary and allowances. He wouldn't throw that away for less than a year as a Member of Parliament in Westminster.

Don't forget, Mrs Farage would lose her salary too!

I Don't Understand #2-UKIP

Over the festive period I had conversations with a couple of Eurosceptics, people who I regard as intelligent and pleasant people. Both tried to convince me that voting UKIP in this year's European Union elections will help extricate us from the costly charade that is the EU. They claim that UKIP 'winning' the EU elections will definitely help extricate us from the EU. But I still don't understand how.

It seems quite simple to me. The European elections will elect MEPs. There are around 750 MEPs in total. The UK elects 73 MEPs. To 'win' the election UKIP would have to get 326  MEPs elected. Even then the European Parliament doesn't have the power to expel or allow a member state to leave.

Even if all 73 UK MEPs elected were UKIP they would still not have the power to extricate us. It is only our national parliament that can effect our withdrawal.

UKIP MEPs have some of the poorest attendance and voting records in the European Parliament, largely down to their belief that they are not there to make the EU work better, but to campaign in the UK for withdrawal. I know, because I used to work for a UKIP MEP. But, apart from Farage popping up on Question Time now and then, when did you last receive any information from your UKIP MEP? Indeed, when, apart from at election time, did you last receive any communication from UKIP? Apart from withdrawing from the EU can you, without using Google, name a single UKIP policy?

I was a member of the Anti-Federalist League in the '90s, but didn't keep up my membership when it morphed into UKIP. Although they then had a policy of not fighting EU elections I wasn't convinced that a single issue party could achieve independence for Britain. After a rethink I joined UKIP in 2000, not resigning until after the NEC elections early in 2009. I am more convinced than ever that the party is a lost cause.

If you like statistics this website has all the results from the last EU elections in 2009. Interesting UKIP only increased their vote by 0.3% on their 2004 results. The Tories meanwhile improved on their 2004 result by 1%. In terms of votes UKIP got 2,500,000 Tories 4,200,000. With Labour 6.4% down on 2,400,000 it's hard to see UKIP outperforming both this year. Indeed, I would put money on Labour beating UKIP this time around. Even the Lib Dems, the most pro-EU of the mainstream, could rally and pull back their losses in 2009, their by-election results don't support the theory that their involvement in the coalition will see them wiped out.

What's the point of electing people to a parliament that they believe to be powerless, that they then don't engage in and that they ultimately want to withdraw from? And all that for a salary of £70,000pa plus very generous allowances. Nigel Farage, before becoming a highly paid MEP in 1999, played a key role in changing UKIP's policy of not standing in European elections.

How will voting UKIP send a message to the EU? If voting against the EU's wishes in national referenda are ignored (Ireland, France, Denmark, Holland) how will a few more Godfrey Blooms make a difference?

I don't understand.