Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Breaking Up and the Referendum
One of the ironies of the Scottish Nazionalists position is that while screaming about independence they want to remain within the European Union. The reason for this is largely because the Scots are one of the world's great subsidy junkies and, while losing their direct cash handouts from us when they leave the UK, they will still be sucking at the tax teat of the EU, including English taxpayers money sent via Brussels.
There is an obnoxiousness around politics generally at the moment that drives decent people out of politics. Attack politicians when they transgress, especially when they break the law, but general attacking in a nasty, vindictive manner only alienates people. The Scottish Nazionalists are adept at this. Some of their members were sending vile messages to Charles Kennedy before he died, including a party official who has since resigned. There are daily reports of people leaving Scotland fearing physical violence if English or Unionist and fearing for the effects of the SNP's Stalinist policies on their businesses. Scotland is seemingly on a daily basis becoming ever more like some tinpot, third world one party state.
The promised EU referendum gives us the chance to shake off the shackles of Brussels. The SNP are claiming that Scotland should only leave the EU if a majority of Scots in Scotland vote for freedom, which they are firmly against. A vote to leave the EU is therefore likely to lead to Scotland finally breaking away from the UK. In some ways that would be a double victory for England, with one referendum we will be free from two bullying, tax sponging entities, Scotland and the EU.
Sadly I doubt this will happen. I have never been confident that Britain would vote to leave the EU in a referendum. We are still waiting to find out the terms of the referendum but I suspect that the whole thing is likely to be weighted against the independence cause. Already the pro-EU camp are lying about millions of job losses if we leave. The government is planning to scrap the 'purdah', the 28 day period before a referendum when the government stays silent on the issue.
Finally we don't know yet how the independence campaign will be structured. Despite getting 4,000,000 votes in the general election UKIP could only scrape in one MP, and he is former Tory MP Douglas Carswell, an extremely popular MP in his constituency. Carswell was on BBC Question Time recently and he was most impressive, indeed he made Nigel Farage look like a music hall act rather than a serious politician. UKIP's lack of credibility makes them a serious liability to the independence cause. Add to the mix the high level of cranks within their ranks and the possibility for serious embarrassment to the cause gives rise to odds that even a non-betting man like me would consider having a flutter on a vote to stay in.
So after all the bluster and hot air I am convinced that after the referendum we will still be in the EU. The Scottish Nazionalists peaked too soon and many of the fifty six loonies elected last month will lose their seats at the next election. Things will bumble along pretty much as they are.