Last night's by-election saw a turnout of 28% and the Labour candidate elected with a mere 12,000 votes, despite keeping Ed Miliband locked under the stairs for the campign. The Tories were never going to win the seat and the fact that their vote held up shows that the Euro problem took the edge off any anti-government vote based on the economy.
The fact that UKIP still couldn't beat the Lib Dems, and claim that their vote wasn't as good as hoped for because the anti-EU vote went to the Tories, shows that they are making virtually no real progress and are not a credible fourth party. If you're only known for being anti-EU and can't get more than a fraction above 5% in a by-election when the country is as anti-EU as I have ever known it you may as well pack up and go home.
So that leaves the Tories and Labour fighting over the corpse of the Liberal Democrats. If I were a betting man I would still put money on the Tories sneaking in at the next general election, especially if Dave's stand against the EU is firmed up and doesn't turn out to be sleight of hand.
I still maintain that Dave should dump the Lib Dems and go for a general election in the New Year. The last thing he wants to do is risk Labour binning Miliband and finding a credible leader from somewhere.
5 comments:
Ah Greg! Aren't you being a little tough on UKIP here? They were only 88 votes behind the LimpDums, have more than more than the Greens and BNP together, and have increased their share of the vote from 2% to 5%. Surely the fact that they came so close to the LimpDums makes them a credible 3rd party?
I don't think so Sean. I had ten years in UKIP being told that they were getting their act together and broadening the policy base. It's never happened.
They accept that MEPs are useless but can only win seats in the European Parlt. If at a time like this they can only muster 5% in a by-election with the EU on everybody's lips then they are a busted flush, which is what I thought when I resigned in 2009.
In the North West they have 4 councillors, three co-opted on town/parish councils one a defector from another party. It's not good and it still quite saddens me.
I understand your dispondency Greg, but as my membership is only 3 months old it is far too early for me to give up. I have read your views and those of WfW regarding the leadership, which are milder than those of Junius and Gregg L-W, but still can't see what they are doing wrong or what they aren't doing that they should be doing. My current view is that UKIP can't make much headway until the people come to believe that the EU is the number one issue and that won't happen while the debate is stifled by the major parties an most of the MSM.
I got a sales call from the Daily Telegraph today offering me 60% off a subscription. They must be getting desperate so maybe once they have all gone the influence of anti-EU bloggers will increase.
In a nutshell they are in it for the money Sean.
Since I joined I have been kept rather busy on other things and haven't even got around to meeting local activists. Hopefully next year I will be able to suss things out for myself.
Post a Comment